digits D optimal B1 default B2 expected curves
N(B1,B2,D)
-power 1 default poly
20 11e3 1.9e6 74 74 [x^1]
25 5e4 1.3e7 221 214 [x^2]
30 25e4 1.3e8 453 430 [D(3)]
35 1e6 1.0e9 984 904 [D(6)]
40 3e6 5.7e9 2541 2350 [D(6)]
45 11e6 3.5e10 4949 4480 [D(12)]
50 43e6 2.4e11 8266 7553 [D(12)]
55 11e7 7.8e11 20158 17769 [D(30)]
60 26e7 3.2e12 47173 42017 [D(30)]
65 85e7 1.6e13 77666 69408 [D(30)]
Table 1: optimal B1 and expected number of curves to find a factor of D digits with GMP-ECM.
After performing the expected number of curves from Table 1, the probability that a factor of D digits was missed is exp(-1), i.e., about 37%. After twice the expected number of curves, it is exp(-2), i.e., about 14%, and so on.
Example: after performing 7553 curves with B1=43e6 and B2=2.4e11, the probability to miss a 50-digit factor is about 37%.
